Affordable watches are driving the Swiss export recovery
By Natalia Hanks, Felicitas Jantsch, Martina Lando · Consumer, Retail & Luxury desk
What happened
Swiss watch exports recorded a fourth consecutive month of growth in September 2026. Cumulative exports for the first nine months of the year reached CHF19.5bn, up 2.7% from the same period in 2025 [1]. However, the recovery was uneven. Exports to the United States rose 85.7%, while Japan and Hong Kong increased 12.3% and 3.0% respectively; China declined 14.2% and the United Kingdom fell 5.2% [1]. Moreover, the increase was concentrated in more affordable and steel watches. Watches priced below CHF500 recorded the strongest value growth, at 39.5%, while steel watches increased 13.0% in value and 21.5% in volume [1]. By contrast, precious-metal watches saw volumes decline 1.0%, despite a 1.3% increase in value [1].
What people are missing
The key question here is whether these figures are a result of stronger underlying demand or simply a recovery from last year’s weak comparison. The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry attributed the sharp increase in US exports to a favourable base effect, meaning that September 2026 is being compared with an unusually weak September 2025 [1]. It is crucial to note that the industry remains below its pre-trade-disruption level. August exports increased 9.1% year on year to CHF1.79bn, yet remained 8.9% below August 2024 [2]. The US, the industry’s largest market, was especially far from its previous level: exports were CHF197.5m, down 38.7% from August 2024 [2]. The composition of growth further complicates analysing the industry recovery. Volume growth was driven primarily by steel and other-material watches, while precious-metal volumes declined. The strong performance of watches below CHF500 is consistent with greater resilience in more accessible price segments, although export statistics cannot prove that consumers are becoming more price-sensitive [1]. The more defensible conclusion is that the recovery is being led by accessible products and selected markets rather than by a broad return to high-end luxury demand.
Why it matters
Swiss watch exports have returned to year-on-year growth, but have not yet returned to 2024 levels. By comparison, Bain estimated that global personal-luxury spending fell from €364bn in 2024 to €358bn in 2025, while McKinsey expects luxury watches to grow by 2%–4% between 2025 and 2027, below its 4%–6% forecasts for jewellery and leather goods [3][4]. This suggests that Swiss watches are benefiting from a partial recovery in shipments, especially in the US, rather than from a universal return of luxury-goods demand.
What we are watching next
The key question is whether the next export releases show continued growth after the favourable US comparison fades, and whether higher-priced and precious-metal watches begin to recover in volume [1]. If growth spreads from steel and more accessible watches into the high-end segment while China stabilises, the recovery will look more demand-driven. If not, September’s figures may have reflected mainly inventory rebuilding and supply-chain normalisation.
Sources
Meridian62 notes explain what is happening and why. They are not investment advice and do not recommend buying or selling anything. Read the disclaimer.